The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

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Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

Virginia Tech recap

That's it. That's all I really have to say about the game, frankly. Best you just move along. Seriously. Stop reading. Move along.

View the complete entry of "Virginia Tech recap"

A look at Virginia Tech

Stats by StatSheet.com

For some unknown reason in the cosmos, there are certain schools that State either matches up well against or seems to struggle with. Georgia Tech football seems to be a team the Pack always, always struggles with. The same with Maryland in football.

One team that State has matched up with on the hardwood in recent years is the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Pack currently holds a six-game winning streak against Virginia Tech, including three wins last year. In fact, State has only lost to the Hokies once since they joined the ACC, their first meeting as conference foes.

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There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason why the Pack -- even in down years -- matches up well the the Hokies. In 2006-07, State laid an absolute arse whoopin' on them in the RBC Center, shooting an insane 66.7% from the floor, including 73.3% from three-point range. It was one of the most dominant performances a Wolfpack team has ever put forth in recent memory.

If the trend is to continue this year, it will take some of that harmonious, offensive-stars-aligning mojo in heavy doses. The Hokies are once again a solid program, ranked 40th in the RPI and capable of beating any team in the country as their win over #1 Wake Forest proved.

They enter the game on a two-game losing streak, however, dropping close games to Clemson at home and a road game against Boston College.

Their two big weapons are A.D. Vassallo and Malcom Delany, who account for the vast bulk of their scoring. Vassallo is a big man who can shoot well from the perimeter, so he could pose some matchup problems for the Pack. And, of course, Delany will challenge our guards offensively and defensively.

So the Hokies have a chance to snap two streaks -- a two-gamer and a six-gamer. We'll see if history continues to favor the Pack and keep them going.

View the complete entry of "A look at Virginia Tech"

Comparing the bubble teams

Hey, let's talk about some ACC teams with good problems, like, "Will we make the NCAA Tournament?"

The top three teams of the league--Carolina, Duke and Clemson--are bona fide locks. No debate about it, the ACC is guaranteed these three, and it's only a matter of seeding from this point forward.

The next three are Virginia Tech, Miami and Maryland. Back in pre-expansion days when the round-robin was in place, usually all it took was a cursory look at the conference record to get a feel for who was in and who was out. A record of 9-7 was all but a lock, and you felt pretty good sitting at 8-8.

But today's post-expansion ACC makes things a little more difficult. Teams now play unbalanced conference schedules, making it tougher to look at conference records and compare apples to apples.

Here's a breakdown of the three teams:

Team	RPI	Pomeroy	AvgConfOppoPomRat	Last 10
Virginia Tech	57	.8928	.863769	6-4
Miami	28	.8917	.878294	6-4
Maryland	69	.8772	.872763	5-5

Maryland, pssh. You're dead. Yeah, 8-8 would've looked good three years ago, but with an RPI of 69, 6th-place finish in the league and a 5-5 record over the last 10 games, including a BAD loss to Virginia in the final regular season game, you can stick a fork in Maryland. I don't think even a run to the ACC finals could save this team.

Now, take a look at the average Pomeroy rating of the conference opponents for the remaining two, VaTech and Miami. You can see there's a sizeable difference between the average rating of the teams VaTech played and those Miami played. Virginia Tech played the top three teams of UNC, Duke and Clemson only once apiece. Miami played both Duke and Clemson twice, and beat them both once.

Miami's RPI is clearly stronger at 28th versus VaTech's 57. Their Last 10 records are both the same, but looking closer, Miami lost only two over the last eight; VaTech lost four.

Ironically, State could potentially spoil BOTH Miami and VaTech's NCAA hopes. Miami faces us in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and a loss in the first round with an 8-8 record could keep them out, despite their RPI. State would advance to Friday's game, and a win against VaTech would give THEM a first-round tournament loss, and really put a hurt on their NCAA bid.

By having two fewer teams in the NCAA tournament field, State could potentially end up costing the rest of the league a LOT of shared NCAA tournament revenue.

Hmmm....

View the complete entry of "Comparing the bubble teams"