State 64, Miami 72

NCAA Basketball Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Bad things happen when you go 12:22 seconds without a bucket. That's just what happened as State watched a 42-36 lead at the 13:22 mark in the second half evaporate over the course of 12 straight missed shots until Javier Gonzalez's three with 1:00 left. At that point it was 56-63 Miami, and State's chances of a road win were dashed.

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Neither team shot the ball well, including Miami's megaweapon Jack McClinton who finished three of 15 from the field. Trevor Ferguson -- starting in place of the injured Courtney Fells -- did a solid job of staying in front of McClinton for most of the game. Miami's senior guard finished with 24 for the game, but 16 of those came from the foul line at the end of the game.

Turnovers were again an issue -- 15 for the Pack against Miami's five. Javi played well at the point, with four assists and two TOs, but he stepped up offensively big time, leading all of State's scorers with 19.

With the loss, State finishes 6-10 in the conference and in sole possession of 10th place. State will face Maryland, the seven seed, Thursday evening at 7:00 in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

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A look at Miami, again

NCAA Basketball Stats

Rank and Records	NCST		MIAMI
RPI	#95		#54
Strength of Schedule	#67		#21
Overall	16-12		17-11
Conference	6-9		6-9
Home	14-4		11-4
Away	2-8		4-6
Top 25	1-6		2-5
RPI Top 50	1-7		2-7

Looking at Miami's Four Factors chart, you can see that they've been trending in the wrong direction in three of the four in the month-plus since the Pack last faced them: Offensive Rebounding Rate, Free Throw Rate and Turnover Rate have all gotten worse since late January.

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As such, it's not surprising that Miami is a team who's been one of -- if not THE -- biggest disappointment of the conference this year. A preseason top-20 team, the Hurricanes enter their final game of the year with no hope of a winning conference record and no realistic shot at an at-large bid to the big dance.

So the only thing left to play for (other than a #9 seed in the ACC tourney) is pride on senior night. Jack McClinton will be playing his final home game as a 'Cane, and will go down in Hurricanes history as one of the best ever.

Which makes this game a very difficult one for the Pack. Just as we saw Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells (prior to his injury) come out firing in their final home game, State should expect the same from McClinton. And when McClinton gets it going, he's nearly unstoppable.

Making this an even dicier proposition for the Pack is that the aforementioned Fells -- the man State turns to as a defensive stopper -- is out with a groin injury. Javier Gonzalez will likely draw the short straw as the man assigned to get in McClinton's jersey and stay there for the night.

If I'm coach Sidney Lowe, I'm tempted to force McClinton to attack the basket by applying close pressure on the perimeter. I know he's just as deadly inside the arc as outside of it, but if McClinton is reduced to driving to the basket he's at least limited to two points per bucket versus three. If the help defense is effective inside, perhaps you can challenge enough shots to keep him under 50% for the game. Further, if he's taking shots closer to the basket rather than farther away, it should limit the long redounds that so often wind up back in the offense's hands and improve State's defensive rebounding numbers.

As they say, you can't stop him, but perhaps they can contain him to ONLY 15-20 points or so on sub-50% shooting, forcing the rest of the Miami squad to beat the Pack.

For the Pack, they just need to keep feeding Tracy Smith and hope that the absence of Fells in the lineup doesn't hinder them too much offensively and defensively. The Big Three Two will need to show up, and whoever fills Fells' slot in the lineup (CJ Williams?) will need to contribute in some form or fashion.

This game will further shape the tone of the program as it concludes year three heading into the postseason and year four of the Lowe era.

View the complete entry of "A look at Miami, again"

The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

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Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

N&O Video of the game winning shot

Pay close attention to Miami's defense of McCauley and Horner, forcing Mays to take the shot.



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View the complete entry of "N&O Video of the game winning shot"

Fells, Mays down Miami in OT, 84-81

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

State's key to victory here on out? Overtime. Every single damn game.

Sidney Lowe's 5-0 in OT as the Wolfpack's head coach thusfar, and notched another victory in his overtime belt with an 84-81 win on a Julius Mays three with 2.6 seconds remaining. Mays had just entered the game for Farnold Degand, who'd fouled out moments before on a violation against Miami's Jack McClinton that led to a tie ballgame at 81-81.

But entering the game cold was no matter for Mays. When the designed play coming out of the timeout broke down, Mays stepped back a foot from the top of the arc and drained the big shot to give the Pack the win.

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As clutch as Mays was, however, he can't overshadow a tremendous performance by senior Courtney Fells. He set a new career high in points with 24, hitting 6-9 shots from beyond the arc--four in the first half and a huge one in overtime.

It was yet another chapter in the sometimes maddening saga of Fells, an incredibly gifted athlete and shooter who can run anywhere from cold and invisible to white hot.

But perhaps more key than Courtney's offense in the first half and in overtime was his defensive play against McClinton. Miami's top-threat scored 27 points but was held without a basket over the final 1:23 of regulation and the entirety of overtime. McClinton's three free throws at the end of overtime were his only points during that stretch. Fells expended a ton of energy trying to stay in front of McClinton, but his strong play defensively seemed to fuel his offensive production.

Good thing for the Pack, because they needed all 24 of his points to simply stay in the game. State played extremely well in the first half and at the open of the second frame, building a 19-point lead at one point in the second half. But Miami kept coming and State began floundering, and State would relinquish all 19 of those points and then some. At the 6:53 mark, Miami led 56-53 after a 12-minute, 31-9 run.

But Brandon Costner hit a huge three with 6:30 to go to stop the bleeding for good, tying the game at 56. He'd tie the game again at 70 to send the game to overtime.

Miami out-rebounded the Pack by 15, but State took care of the basketball again for the second-straight game, again only losing 10 possessions to turnovers. This is a good sign. Far too many times this year the Pack has been sunk by lazy passing and a lack of focus on offense. By protecting the ball they were able to capitalize on their trips down the court, and with some hot shooting (53.3% from the floor and 58.3% from three), the Pack kept a good but struggling Miami team at bay despite the big second-half drought.

Up next: The Tar Heels. The task ahead gets tougher by several factors, but a win at home to hold serve certainly can't hurt.

View the complete entry of "Fells, Mays down Miami in OT, 84-81"

A look at Miami

Stats by StatSheet.com

Steven's preview over at Section Six

It seems like the names and the jerseys change, but the story remains the same: another game, another guard.

This time it's Jack McClinton, one of the best scorers in the league and a player who has the potential to get as hot as anyone in the country. He's averaging 17.9 points per game while shooting a staggering 45.5% from three-point range. When he's feeling it, he knows it and will pull the trigger at every opportunity. If he's on, you have to start guarding him at the midcourt stripe.

Miami plays a deep rotation, much like State. Eight players average 13.7 minutes or more per game.

Every game from here on out is important, but tonight's game may be even moreso with Carolina coming to town on Saturday. A win over Miami, at home, would certainly be the preferred way to enter the remainder of the week preparing for the huge annual rivalry game.

If State can rebound better than they did against BC yet duplicate or best those 10 turnovers given up, they'll go along way toward that goal.

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Comparing the bubble teams

Hey, let's talk about some ACC teams with good problems, like, "Will we make the NCAA Tournament?"

The top three teams of the league--Carolina, Duke and Clemson--are bona fide locks. No debate about it, the ACC is guaranteed these three, and it's only a matter of seeding from this point forward.

The next three are Virginia Tech, Miami and Maryland. Back in pre-expansion days when the round-robin was in place, usually all it took was a cursory look at the conference record to get a feel for who was in and who was out. A record of 9-7 was all but a lock, and you felt pretty good sitting at 8-8.

But today's post-expansion ACC makes things a little more difficult. Teams now play unbalanced conference schedules, making it tougher to look at conference records and compare apples to apples.

Here's a breakdown of the three teams:

Team	RPI	Pomeroy	AvgConfOppoPomRat	Last 10
Virginia Tech	57	.8928	.863769	6-4
Miami	28	.8917	.878294	6-4
Maryland	69	.8772	.872763	5-5

Maryland, pssh. You're dead. Yeah, 8-8 would've looked good three years ago, but with an RPI of 69, 6th-place finish in the league and a 5-5 record over the last 10 games, including a BAD loss to Virginia in the final regular season game, you can stick a fork in Maryland. I don't think even a run to the ACC finals could save this team.

Now, take a look at the average Pomeroy rating of the conference opponents for the remaining two, VaTech and Miami. You can see there's a sizeable difference between the average rating of the teams VaTech played and those Miami played. Virginia Tech played the top three teams of UNC, Duke and Clemson only once apiece. Miami played both Duke and Clemson twice, and beat them both once.

Miami's RPI is clearly stronger at 28th versus VaTech's 57. Their Last 10 records are both the same, but looking closer, Miami lost only two over the last eight; VaTech lost four.

Ironically, State could potentially spoil BOTH Miami and VaTech's NCAA hopes. Miami faces us in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and a loss in the first round with an 8-8 record could keep them out, despite their RPI. State would advance to Friday's game, and a win against VaTech would give THEM a first-round tournament loss, and really put a hurt on their NCAA bid.

By having two fewer teams in the NCAA tournament field, State could potentially end up costing the rest of the league a LOT of shared NCAA tournament revenue.

Hmmm....

View the complete entry of "Comparing the bubble teams"