The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

(Continues)

Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

State 56, Duke 73

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

Here are my thoughts from the game:

• State seems to have the ability to "infect" the opposing team with their "suck." No matter the opposing squad, they seem to get pulled down to our level in terms of pace and poor ballhandling. Duke looked just as inept as we typically do in the first half.
• Another game, another late-game swoon. Somehow, we need to figure out a way to close out games. 30 minutes of good basketball doesn't earn you squat in the W/L ledger.
• I thought we played pretty solid defense, for the most part, aside from some lapses here and there. For the entirety of the first half and, again, about the first 10-minutes of the second half, we played with intensity--if not savvy--on the defensive end. It paid off on the scoreboard. We've got to find a way to stretch that kind of play out for 40 full minutes.
• I'm done with the Javi Gonzalez experiment. Done. Finished. That's it. Farnold Degand and Julius Mays played well enough between the two of them to keep Javi off the court, and yet he kept getting minutes and kept making mistakes. Turnovers, blown defensive assignments leading to wide-open threes...there's no reason in my mind that Mays and Degand shouldn't be the only two options at the point. That's 100% on Sidney.
  
• State has no answer for a player like Gerald Henderson. He's as tall as a power forward He's apparently only 6'4", but plays much taller than that, and he's as athletic as a two-guard. Johnny Thomas is the only man on the team that could match his athleticism, but Henderson continually found ways to get separation for easy shots. Henderson was the catalyst that started Duke's decisive run in the second half.

Overall, I was impressed with the fight the team showed. They shot the ball well, for the most part; they just ran into a team that shot the ball even better down the stretch. Duke was hitting over 76% over their shots at one point in the second half, and it's darn near impossible to beat a team in their house--be it Duke or anyone else for that matter--when they're shooting at that kind of clip.

Up next: Boston College. If State can bottle up some of what it brought tonight and play that way in Chesnut Hill, then I think State can get a key road win.

View the complete entry of "State 56, Duke 73"

A look at Duke (read: "How in the f*** are we supposed to win this game?")

Stats by StatSheet.com

Badass Courtney, Activate!


After hanging tough with Clemson in Littlejohn for 30 minutes, then struggling at home against FSU and Georgia Tech, State faces its first true heavy-hitter on the conference schedule: Duke, in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

(Continues)

Duke is back to its perennial top-five form the way they've always done it under K--tough, smothering, borderline illegal clutch-n-grab defense. They're ranked second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency over at kenpom.com, allowing just 82.3 points/100 possessions. Pretty nasty.

You can play great defense and still be an average team...Duke mates a tremendous offense--ranked 12th by Pomeroy--with their fantastic defense. Duke expects to score 116.8 points/100 possessions--meaning Duke projects to outscore their opponents by about 23 points a game (assuming 67 possessions per game). Downright filthy.

Sophomore Kyle Singler has blossomed into the all-everything he was made out to be coming out of high school. He's consistently chipping in 16.8 points, 8.4 boards and 3.1 assists per game. Gerald Henderson and Jon Scheyer are second and third in scoring, respectively, on the Blue Devils roster, adding 14.0 and 13.8 points per game.

Any way you slice it, there's little hope for victory over in Cameron. Pomeroy gives us all of a 2% shot at pulling it off, and the pessimist in me says that's being generous.

Then again, Michigan--a pretty average team--was able to knock off the Blue Devils in Ann Arbor back in early December. So if even by only the slimmest of chances, victory can be had if everything--and I do mean EVERYTHING--falls the Wolfpack's way.

Julius Mays and Farnold Degand will have to play the games of their lives if State's to have a shot. The number of turnovers the Pack has been averaging will have to be cut in half, if not by more. Giving Duke easy points in transition will doom State.

If State and Duke played this game 100 times, State might win enough to count on two hands, barely. That there's a chance of pulling off a major upset is why you play them and hope for the best.

View the complete entry of "A look at Duke (read: "How in the f*** are we supposed to win this game?")"

Just when you thought you had 90 days, 11 hours, 22 minutes and 32...31...30 seconds to avoid the Duke/Carolina hype

The fine folks at Awful Announcing noticed this while perusing the CBS Sportsline college basketball page: A counter ticking off the seconds until UNC faces Duke in Cameron:

And you thought only ESPN did this kind of stuff?

Welcome to the world of college basketball coverage in the 21st century: where only two teams matter. All the other games in the conference and the country are merely a backdrop for the two, three or possibly even four times these two teams face each other.

Memo to the execs at CBS...don't follow suit with how ESPN approaches things. There are tons of other great teams out there deserving of attention and you would be better served focusing on those stories instead of subtly hyping ONE game THREE MONTHS AWAY.

Is it any wonder that Carolina just signed five players, regarded as the best recruiting class in college basketball? Or that Duke is right there with them in inking talent? When the media marginalizes every team not named "Duke" or "Carolina" in this fashion, it sends a message to recruits across the country that these are the only two programs worth a damn. And the nature of college sports being what they are, relying so heavily on recruiting, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy that Duke and Carolina are always raking in talent. More talent, more wins, more exposure, more talent...rinse and repeat.

Sour grapes, blah blah blah...perhaps it's some of that. But the underlying message is still the same no matter whom you root for: If it's not Duke or Carolina, it doesn't matter.

View the complete entry of "Just when you thought you had 90 days, 11 hours, 22 minutes and 32...31...30 seconds to avoid the Duke/Carolina hype"

N&O Video from the Duke game

You know I'm a big fan of the video the N&O staff put together from the State football games. No frills, no flash...just the essence of the game distilled down into about five minutes. Good stuff. Enjoy.

View the complete entry of "N&O Video from the Duke game"

Baby steps: State defeats Duke 27-17

Recap from PackPride.com

GoPack.com recap

BoxScore

Well, it took five years to get here, but State continued its winning streak against the Blue Devils, taking their 11th in a row against Duke, by posting a 27-17 win in Durham.

The series renewal and subsequent win couldn't have come at a better time. It gives State their first conference win for the year, their third win overall and keeps the oh-so-slim hopes of making a bowl bid alive.

(Continues)

Russell Wilson continued his strong play, tossing two touchdowns against zero interceptions. That gives Wilson eight scores for the year with only one pick in 168 attempts...EXTREMELY solid numbers for a guy playing his first year at the college level, not to mention one who's missed the better part of three games.

The bigger story, however, was State's defense bowing up and stopping Duke on four fourth-down attempts, all in State territory and twice within 12 yards of the endzone. There were still plenty of yards posted against them, and some baffling alignments allowed for easy conversions for Duke in some situations (i.e. corners playing 10 yards off the ball on third-and-seven, for example).

But this was a key game for State heading into the final four game mini-season. They've won the first. Up next is a beatable Wake team, and a win in that game would set the stage for a GREAT showdown with the Tar Heels on the 22nd who smacked the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets around earlier in the day.

First things first, though. Cross your fingers that no one got injured, continue to improve in all areas and get ready for Wake. That'll be the order of business for the Pack in the coming week.

View the complete entry of "Baby steps: State defeats Duke 27-17"

Injury Report Update: Nate Irving, Julian Williams to play against Duke

Per WRAL

It's yet to be determined just how much Irving will play, but as we've clearly seen this season, his absence is felt almost as soon as he leaves the playing field.

Having him back to patrol the middle will be key in limiting the intermediate passing game and should elevate the play of everyone around him. Let's just hope he makes it through this game unscathed, as we'll certainly need him the rest of the way.

Some good news to start a Friday is always appreciated!

View the complete entry of "Injury Report Update: Nate Irving, Julian Williams to play against Duke"

Pack takes two of three from Duke

The Pack posted wins on Saturday and Sunday after losing on Friday to take the homes series with Duke over the weekend at the Doak.

Ryan Pond continued his strong hitting at the plate on Sunday, going 3-for-5 with 4 RBIs.

Here's how the ACC baseball standings look as of April 14th. The Pack's second in a weak Atlantic Division headed up by FSU, while the Coastal goes four-deep with strong teams.

TLANTIC DIVISION School Conference Pct. Overall Pct. Florida State 17-1 .944 31-3 .912 NC State 10-7 .588 23-11 .676 Wake Forest 6-11 .353 13-21 .382 Clemson 6-12 .333 18-17 .514 Maryland 5-13 .278 20-17 .541 Boston College 5-13 .278 18-17 .514 COASTAL DIVISION School Conference Pct. Overall Pct. Miami 15-1 .938 30-3 .909 North Carolina 13-4 .765 29-7 .806 Virginia 11-7 .611 29-9 .763 Georgia Tech 9-9 .500 26-10 .722 Duke 5-12 .294 23-12 .657 Virginia Tech 3-15 .167 15-21 .417

The big game coming up this week at home is a one-game matchup with East Carolina Tuesday night. State beat the Pirates earlier this month, so no doubt the Pirates will be looking to exact some revenge. Should be a good one, especially as well as State has been hitting as of late.

View the complete entry of "Pack takes two of three from Duke"

36% Don't Give a Damn

http://www.wral.com/sports/story/2534495/

In a recent poll conducted prior to the Feb. 5th matchup between Duke and Carolina, 40 percent of the 969 respondents said they would be pulling for Carolina.

Twenty-four percent said they'd be pulling for Duke.

So what of the the missing 36%? They, apparently, could care less.

Yikes, Duke fan...fewer people in this state will be pulling for your team than the folks that just don't care.

I guess I'm somewhat amazed, despite one of the most impressive streaks of prolonged winning dating back to the late 80s, that there aren't more Duke fans in this state. Yeah, they are a smaller private school, and Carolina has a much better alumni base in the state. Still, if winning is what builds your non-alumni fanbase in the area, then why aren't there more Duke fans in this state?

Maybe it's because Duke--by virtue of its Chicago-born coach and student body comprised of mostly New Jersey-nites(?)--just doesn't connect with a southern audience? I don't know...that seems overly simplistic.

In any event, I think it's funny that nearly as many folks really don't give a crap about who wins this game than those pulling for one of the teams. Maybe this game isn't the megaspectacle, at least here in NC, that ESPN and everyone else would have you to believe.

View the complete entry of "36% Don't Give a Damn"

Yay...it's that time again.

Well, here we are again...wrapping up another year of ACC basketball. You know what that means boys and girls! It's time for the second installment of this year's BATTLE OF THE BLUEZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!

*gag*

Look, we all get it. These are two of the top college basketball programs. They're playing for the mythical "regular season championship" (the true champion being decided, of course, in the ACC tournament...this game is for the #1 seed, essentially). It features great players and great coaches and great fans on both sides and the tickets cost a bazillion dollars a piece and yada yada yada.

We get all that.

It just makes me, and and I think a lot of State and ACC fans, sick to our freaking stomachs.

Say what you will about expansion ruining ACC basketball (and it's hurt), but the real poison to the league to me has been the over-adulation these two teams receive leading up to these games every year. The national sports networks are glad to cram every Duke and Carolina highlight down your throat at every opportunity during the week prior, but did anyone notice (or care) that Duke and Carolina actually PLAYED other games this week?

Apparently the Carolina fans didn't care so much about their game against Florida State, and the Carolina players called them out for it. You think there would've been a different story had Duke's game against UVA been in Cameron? These two games only mattered insomuch as they could've been spoilers for TEH GREATEST MATCHUP KNOWN TO MAN (this month).

Oh, did anyone give a sh*t that Miami--a team picked to finish dead last in the league--all but punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament with a win over Boston College? Probably not. Not hard to fathom, though, since the highlights for the game probably came after some extended interviews with Quentin Thomas and his burgeoning rap career.

Yes, pretty much the rest of the league is here only to prop up The Blues. To increase their RPI, give them some quality wins, a couple of losses to make them seem somewhat-less-than-perfect, and then to GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY when these two teams face one another.

It's the ultimate "The Rich Getting Richer" scenario. With ESPN and every other major sports network fawning over these two, the other 10 teams in the league have been relegated to "also ran" status, and if you're a recruit out there trying to decide whom to play for, can you really ignore the preferential treatment these two teams receive? It's why each and every year Duke and Carolina pick three-four McDonald's AAs, and you might have six or seven sprinkled throughout the rest of the league.

So America, here it is, THE BATTLE OF THE BLUES. Lap it up all you want. You'll get heavy doses of it, for sure.

Me, I could freaking care less. I'd tell both of them to go jump in a freaking river. Is it sour grapes, envy, jealousy? Yeah. But so what. F Duke, and F Carolina.

View the complete entry of "Yay...it's that time again."

'83: Should we just move on already?

As I was riding into work today I was listening to 850 The Buzz, as I'm apt to do, and the topic of conversation centered around the '83 Championship.

This year, of course, is the 25th Anniversary of said title. Tonight, WRAL plans to run a special at 7:30 on the title run and all the magical moments that surrounded it.

It was a special time for my university, and it's one we--as State fans--always will treasure. But I think I have to agree with the hosts, Adam Gold and Joe Ovies: It's time to move on.

We've been living in the past for too long. When I started at State, '83 was just over a decade away. Now it's a quarter-century. I was at Technician when we put together a 15th Anniversary piece, and I remember thinking then that 15 years was a long damn time away. Now it's a decade longer.

We need to focus on the here-and-now, because that's all we have to show to potential recruits. We can point to some trophies in a glass case--so can San Francisco and Oklahoma State. But kids today know nothing of our past success, unless they just so happened to grow up State fans with parents who shared it with them as a child.

Cold reality: In a year or so, a college freshman will have been born in the 90's. Given that our last real solid team--with Corchiani and Monroe--was the 1990-1991 squad, the entirety of these kids' lives will have been lived AFTER our last great team. Even scarier: The kids born during the year of our last ACC title, 1987, are beginning to graduate college this year.

It sucks, because it means I'm old.

It also sucks because it means there's no legitimate reason a top-flight recruit should know of State ever having been a great program. No more so than they should think the same way of Houston. We haven't posted any measure of real, tangible success (read:titles) in their lifetimes.

All we have are old trophies and great memories, but those can't recruit for us anymore. We have to sell what we have, not what we had.

Unfortunately, we're competing against programs in the area that have tremendous built-in recruiting advantages. Duke and Carolina don't have to recruit at all, really--they choose. I could sign three McDonald's All-Americas with my eyes closed at one of those two programs. The hype for the Duke-Carolina games seems to get bigger each year, and has turned into its own self-hyping phenomenon. Are we surprised that the two top programs in the league by a good margin are Duke and Carolina, and have been for a decade?

All that success builds the recruiting pool for these two schools across the country. Hell, one of the top point guard prospects in the country, John Wall, is right in Carolina's backyard in Cary, and despite his own admission that he grew up a Carolina fan, he wasn't offered because they ALREADY have too many top-flight PGs on their roster! When you have the luxury of not offering the best talent in the country because there's no room on your squad, a trained monkey could coach your team to 20-win seasons year-in and year-out. (Which makes you wonder about Matt Doherty...)

All of this is to say: we've got a tough fight ahead of us, and it's not made any easier by where we're located. But, we've got to shed this anchor of the '83 championship, because all it's doing is weighing us down at the moment. The more we scream about past titles and miracles and magic, the more desperate we appear to the outside world--including recruits.

Sure, show them the trophy case. Make your point about returning to that level of greatness. But if Sidney's wise--and we're wise as a fanbase--the '83 and '74 championships will be near the end of the recruiting tour, not near the beginning.

View the complete entry of "'83: Should we just move on already?"

The call.

Man, I hate crap like this.

Not because it's a call that went against us. It's just a bad call to make in that scenario, because when you make it, you open the door for conspiracy theorists who clog up the normal flow of a basketball discussion.

Was there contact between Ben and Demarcus? Of course. But was it enough to justify a call in that situation, with State clinging to a one-point lead and Duke in the midst of a comeback? In my opinion, no.

The conspiracy theorists are also bolstered by the fact that Nelson hooks Ben on the way to the basket. The whistle toots at that moment in the play, not when Ben makes the most contact with Nelson.

It feels kind of like the traveling call against Corchiani in '89 against Georgetown in the NCAA tournament...a whistle blown by an official who felt because of the bang-bang nature of the play that something must be called, but unsure of what, exactly. And he has about .5 seconds to make a decision. And just like the Georgetown game, the team coming in with the higher prestige gets the benefit of the doubt.

I hate conspiracy theorists in college sports. I don't believe that there is any real call from on top to boost Duke or Carolina through uneven officiating. But gosh, doesn't it just seem like they get all the breaks like this?

View the complete entry of "The call."

So close...

...yet so far away.

(apologies for the Hall 'N Oates reference)







DUKE 87
NC State 86

Man, there's nothing that hurts more than losing a home game to Duke by one point. Especially when you've led most of the game and--after shooting ridiculously well from the free throw line the first 3/4 of the game--you suddenly go cold from the free throw line trying to seal the deal.

Three-for-six down the stretch when Duke was charging like a roided-up bull just didn't get it done. You have to play nearly perfect in all phases of the game to pull off that kind of upset. We did it in 1998 against Carolina in the Dean Dome; we didn't do it today.

Two of those three crucial misses were on Javier Gonzalez, but it's tough to get too down on the guy after his gutty performance today. Ben McCauley's 19 points bested his 18 by one, but he had three assists to only one turnover against a Duke defense known for its tenacious D. He repeatedly brought the ball up the court against tough pressure and didn't fold. Kudos to you, young man...here's hoping you use this game to propel you into a productive offseason.

Tracy Smith and Trevor "Turd" Ferguson had good games again. Smith made the most of his 22 minutes in a starting role, scoring 14 on 4-5 shooting and a perfect 6-6 from the line. Turd chipped in with another nine, giving him 37 over the last three games. These two could be the cornerstone, along with Gonzalez, of the rebuilding project Sidney faces next season if Hickson leaves for the pros.

Speaking of Hickson, he pitched in eight in 18 minutes, along with five rebounds. He just hasn't taken over games over the back half of this season like I thought he would. I'm not sure if it's freshman fatigue or just an increased level of competition, but his resume for an early exit at this point looks pretty sparse. I think he needs to return for another year to get stronger physically and more mature mentally. He still breaks down defensively too much in trying to crush an opponent on his way to the basket. Once he learns how to play a tough defensive game within the overall defensive scheme, the blocks and highlight-reel defensive plays will come to him.

I was encouraged to see State play some matchup zone tonight. It kept Duke from beating our players off the dribble repeatedly, preventing the drive-n-kick threes that break a team's will. And offensively, the team played well enough throughout most of the game to get even ol' coach K to play a little zone to slow down our attack.

But at the end of the day, an "L" is an "L." As good as I felt about certain parts of this game, the inability to close it out, when up as much as 13 in the second half and up eight with under 4:00 to go, makes this a tough loss to swallow. It's indicative of how young and inexperienced our guards are. While Duke was surging late in the game, we turtled up and turned off the killer instinct that earned us the lead for most of the game. It's been shown time and time again--when you play not to lose, you almost invariably do. And the two misses by Gonzalez late in the game were probably a function of some freshmen nerves, as well.

Give Duke a ton of credit. They made every big shot and free throw they needed down the stretch to win it. They are an embodiment of their tough-as-nails coach. Beating them is no small feat.

The question for this team now is, "What do you take from this game?" Will they respond to the almost-coulda-shoulda that came as a result of their much higher effort level? Or, will their spirit--already fragile at this point--crumble in their final games of the season?

We shall see...

View the complete entry of "So close..."