State 69, Maryland 74

NCAA Basketball Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

I'll post a recap once I sober up and cool down.

View the complete entry of "State 69, Maryland 74"

Maryland 71, State 60

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

Ugh.

With a shot at a .500 conference mark and momentum heading into the postseason on the line, the Pack laid an absolute egg at the RBC Center last night.

(Continues)

Greivis Vasquez was unstoppable, scoring 33 points while dishing out another five assists. The Pack didn't have a defensive answer for him, no matter what defensive look they threw at him.

Compounding matters, the Pack played poorly when they had the ball. They made one careless turnover after another and shot the ball poorly from the perimeter (26.3%). Tracy Smith was a beast down low in the first half, but when Maryland went to zone on defense, State's perimeter players were unable to get the ball to him as effectively and resorted to three-point shots.

Brandon Costner and Courtney Fells were non-factors again, offensively. Even worse for Fells, he struggled defensively against Vasquez, and when you aren't playing well offensively and you're not effective as a defensive stopper, it looks doubly bad.

It's amazing how one loss can completely kill the renewed optimism surrounding the program. Just a week ago, State had won three of its last four and some overly optimistic folks were talking of running the table.

Now State has lost three of its last four, and after losing a winnable game at home, it feels like all the air has been sucked out of the room. Five-hundred in the conference is gone, and 7-9 seems like a long shot with a road game against Miami left. And if BC plays to their ability and the Pack duplicates the same effort it gave against the Terps in their game against Eagles, 5-11 could loom as a real possibility.

View the complete entry of "Maryland 71, State 60"

A look at Maryland

Stats by StatSheet.com

Rank and Records	UMD		NCST
RPI	#58		#87
Strength of Schedule	#22		#74
Overall	17-10		15-11
Conference	6-7		5-8
Home	14-3		13-3
Away	1-5		2-8
Top 25	2-6		1-6
RPI Top 50	4-9		2-9

(Continues)

With three ACC games remaining, State has a chance to finish 8-8 and .500 in the league. They could also finish 5-11. Finishing the season on a strong note heading into next season starts tonight against the Terps.

The Terrapins, much like Boston College, FSU and Miami, lean on an outstanding guard for their offense. Greivis Vasquez leads the team in points scored, field goals made and free throws made. But Vasquez provides much more than just offense to the Terps. He also leads the team in rebounding, assists and steals. He does it all, and when he's on his game, the Terrapins are very tough to beat.

Maryland will also turn to junior Landon Milbourne for added production. He's second on the team in scoring, and leads the team in offensive rebounding and blocks.

Where the Terps struggle is shooting the ball. They're 11th in the conference in effective FG percentage at 46.4%, and is one of the weaker teams from the perimeter, shooting only 32%. Compounding matters, they don't get to the line nearly enough. Their FTR% is 325th nationally at 29.3%, but they're in the top 10 in free throw percentage, 76.6%. In short, they're leaving a lot of points on the table by not getting to the line more.

This is a huge game for the Pack. State's favored by four at home, and has played well of late in the confines of the RBC Center. However, there's more riding on this game, and the BC game, than in previous contests. If the Pack can hold serve at home they would secure a 7-9 finish and have a good look at that .500 finish heading into the ACC tourney. Lose tonight, and it may kickstart a swoon that will all but negate the positive momentum the Pack has built over the last few weeks.

View the complete entry of "A look at Maryland"

The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

(Continues)

Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

Comparing the bubble teams

Hey, let's talk about some ACC teams with good problems, like, "Will we make the NCAA Tournament?"

The top three teams of the league--Carolina, Duke and Clemson--are bona fide locks. No debate about it, the ACC is guaranteed these three, and it's only a matter of seeding from this point forward.

The next three are Virginia Tech, Miami and Maryland. Back in pre-expansion days when the round-robin was in place, usually all it took was a cursory look at the conference record to get a feel for who was in and who was out. A record of 9-7 was all but a lock, and you felt pretty good sitting at 8-8.

But today's post-expansion ACC makes things a little more difficult. Teams now play unbalanced conference schedules, making it tougher to look at conference records and compare apples to apples.

Here's a breakdown of the three teams:

Team	RPI	Pomeroy	AvgConfOppoPomRat	Last 10
Virginia Tech	57	.8928	.863769	6-4
Miami	28	.8917	.878294	6-4
Maryland	69	.8772	.872763	5-5

Maryland, pssh. You're dead. Yeah, 8-8 would've looked good three years ago, but with an RPI of 69, 6th-place finish in the league and a 5-5 record over the last 10 games, including a BAD loss to Virginia in the final regular season game, you can stick a fork in Maryland. I don't think even a run to the ACC finals could save this team.

Now, take a look at the average Pomeroy rating of the conference opponents for the remaining two, VaTech and Miami. You can see there's a sizeable difference between the average rating of the teams VaTech played and those Miami played. Virginia Tech played the top three teams of UNC, Duke and Clemson only once apiece. Miami played both Duke and Clemson twice, and beat them both once.

Miami's RPI is clearly stronger at 28th versus VaTech's 57. Their Last 10 records are both the same, but looking closer, Miami lost only two over the last eight; VaTech lost four.

Ironically, State could potentially spoil BOTH Miami and VaTech's NCAA hopes. Miami faces us in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and a loss in the first round with an 8-8 record could keep them out, despite their RPI. State would advance to Friday's game, and a win against VaTech would give THEM a first-round tournament loss, and really put a hurt on their NCAA bid.

By having two fewer teams in the NCAA tournament field, State could potentially end up costing the rest of the league a LOT of shared NCAA tournament revenue.

Hmmm....

View the complete entry of "Comparing the bubble teams"