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Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Welcome To The Party, Pal: Jeremy M. Joins YANCSSB Staff

Jeremy M.
YANCSSB Contributor

So for my first blog posting I'll tackle the oft-discussed frustrations of this year's edition of Wolfpack Basketball.

I try to understand what I don't understand; that's how I tick. And I honestly thought this team was better from watching the early games. Looking back over the season thus far, I tried to review in my head what happened when I'd stood clapping and what had happened when I folded the brim of my hat in my hands. What's the one key stat for a win or a loss for this team?
  • Three-point shooting? Things really seem to go well when Wood/Javi/Degand are hot. But wait--we shot 50% from three-point range and lost at Arizona.
  • Turnovers? This was our percieved weakness coming into the year, but hasn't been. In none of State's losses has the ball been turned over more than 14 times and we gave it away only nine times in the Virginia game (that sent me in basketball-avoidance mode until Tuesday).
  • Freshman Scoring? Nope. The five-headed monster only scored 14 points in our biggest win of the year at Marquette and had their highest output of the year in the Arizona loss (25).
  • Rebounding? Marquette outrebounded the Pack by six in the Warrior loss, and NCSU outrebounded Zona by 12 in the still-confounding loss.
  • Free Throw Shooting? 68.4% against Northwestern wasn't too shabby and the team in red lost and they also won while shooting only 50% from the line against Marquette.
So I guess the only conclusion is what we all suspected. NC State Basketball finds a way. Ways to win and ways to lose. Not just a way, a new way almost every game. If you can think of something I didn't come up with here, chime in on the comments and I'll do the legwork to check.

Until then, I keep folding my hat in my hands.

But along these lines, here's a first shot at trying to lay out what I think are the defining stats for upcoming games. In this case, let's look at the Florida State Seminoles.

NC State will win if...
  • They have 13 or more assists (FSU is #2 in eFG% defense, so smart passing is key)
  • They make 14 or more free throws (This one is obvious and needed to fight through demons)
  • And force 15 or more turnovers (The Noles are turnover prone, State will need to play to that)
Maybe we'll check back to see how I did before the weekend. And follow up on any new keys we've stumbled onto...

- Jeremy M.


  1. nice predictions. maybe the team has turned a corner. freshman scoring? check. free throw shooting? check.

    the next four games will be key. i was hoping we would have at least 2 ACC wins before this brutal stretch of Clemson, Duke and UNC at home with a road game at Maryland. If we can some how come away with one win out of those four, we should be very pleased.

  2. you forgot to add to your list for a win at fsu scott wood goes crazy from the three point line and scores 31!

    here is what i think is a problem for this years team and which is something i have mentioned at other sites: State has been starting four players which were three star players top 200 or top 250 coming out of high school(Havi, Williams, Wood and Horner) and one that was a four star top 50 (Smith). i would add that i think the people who rank high school players missed on Wood. i think he was more likely a top 50 player closer to 5 starts than 3.
    the majority of the other teams in the conference have at least one 5 star player and some have starting lineups consisting of 5 star players. this puts State behind the 8 ball. Better players better results.
    i should point out that sometimes teams such as State do real well; for example, George Mason of a few years ago and Davidson a few years ago.

  3. Looks like I was off some on my "key stats", but not by much. I'll hack out an analysis tonight and a Clemson preview.

    And regarding the ranking of our recruits, I recognize that we have a lower number of 4-star and 5-star recruits. But that's a copout statistically speaking relative to my post. What would that five-star guard be bringing? What would our season look like with Lo Brown or one of the other frosh ACC 5-stars? Perhaps a good subj for next week...