Ultra-Late UNC Recap

College Basketball

Well, that could've gone better.

In a game a lot of State fans felt gave the Pack their best chance to knock off a Roy Williams-era Tar Heels team since, well, ever, State fell flat on their face by virtue of a 28-6 UNC run over the majority of the second half.

State's cold shooting was met with an aggressive, hot shooting Heels team when it mattered. The Tar Heels played great defensively, I thought, extending their defense out beyond the perimeter to challenge the passing lanes and take Javier Gonzalez and Farnold Degand out of their comfort zones.

I think this is a key point, because I think it exposed the difference in level our current guards are at versus the rest of the league. A set of quicker, more aggressive guards would burn an extended defense off the dribble to penetrate and create some easy looks on the wing or underneath. As much as Javi has developed as a shooter and Degand has improved his ballhandling skills, they still don't have the ability to create that kind of separation that far from the basket from a defense loaded with McDonald's All Americans.

This is not to throw the loss at the feet of State's guards. If it were not for Javi's hot shooting at the end of the first half, there's a good chance the game is over before the 2nd half even starts. He finished the game as State's second-highest scorer, and at times brought the most fire and emotion of anyone on the team.

But to beat a team as talented as Carolina, even in a down year, he has to play that way wire-to-wire. Consistency is the key. To stay that elevated, emotionally, for 40 minutes, I'm sure is extremely difficult, but it's needed.

State faces a cakewalk in NC Central this Saturday (who mustered all of 30 points against Virginia Tech last week) before the stretch run of the ACC season begins.

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Jeremy's Keys To Victory: UNC

The Pack needs to get to 3-4 in the ACC (and fighting the middle of the league) or they will likely find themselves fighting to stay out of last place for the remainder of the year. Here's how they do it:

• Get to the line 10 times a half (The Heels are 2-4 when their opponents shoot 30% as many FT's as they do FG's).
• Shoot greater than 45% from the field (More Duke game, less Maryland game, mmkay?).
• Have at least a five-point lead at the 10 minute mark of the first half (Make Carolina doubt themselves early instead of gaining confidence in themselves).

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Maryland Recap

College Basketball

Stat	Game		Season Avg		Opp Season Avg
Points	64	88	71	81	65	65
FG Att	66	54	55	61	57	62
FG Made	24	29	25	30	24	23
FG Pct	36.4	53.7	45.7	48.6	41.5	37.3
FT Att	16	33	20	22	19	17
FT Made	10	24	14	15	12	11
FT Pct	62.5	72.7	67.9	70.2	67.1	68.2
3pt FG Att	20	13	17	14	15	21
3pt FG Made	6	6	6	5	4	7
3pt FG Pct	30.0	46.2	35.5	39.0	31.6	33.1
Rebounds	37	39	35	39	35	37
Off Rebs	17	12	11	12	13	14
Def Rebs	20	27	24	27	22	22
Team Rebs	4	4	3	3	3	4
Assists	10	16	14	16	11	11
Steals	2	5	6	8	7	5
Blocks	3	1	5	5	3	3
Turnovers	11	9	12	11	12	16
Fouls	21	16	17	16	18	19

Well. Not sure what to say, really, other than that's what happens when your shots don't fall on the road. It certainly didn't help matters that Maryland was as hot as State was cold from the field.

I thought State had some good looks at the basket, and Tracy Smith did everything he could to keep State in the game. But shooting sub-40% from the floor on the road in the ACC isn't going to cut it.

A couple of gripes: State gave up way too many wide-open looks from three, either on dribble penetration or when State applied full-court pressure--three I can think of off the top of my head. Also, I felt like the scheme didn't allow for enough looks for Scott Wood. Getting him hot could've changed things like it did in Tallahassee, but I doubt--after that performance--he'll get another clean look at the basket anytime soon. Still, I would've liked to have seen some more sets run to free him up on the perimeter.

Credit to Greivis Vasquez for playing a monster 2nd half. That's what he does.

All in all, my rage level is about a 3-out-of-10...A certifiable "meh" if there ever was one. Winning on the road against a good Maryland team was a tough proposition. Tonight will give the coaching staff the coaching points it needs heading into the INCREDIBLY WINNABLE game against the Tar Heels on Tuesday.

A win would've been nice...but I'm not heartbroken, nor pissed.

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A Look Inside The KenPom.com Numbers Thus Far

So I was looking at the numbers over at KenPom.com today...the site's a tremendous resource for evaluating teams. Here's a look at some of State's "vitals," by section, and what I think they tell us about the team so far (as of Thursday, State was #61 out of 347 Division 1 teams in the Pomeroy Ratings):

Scouting Report
Stats include games through Thursday, January 21 against D-I teams only

Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency:	111.5 [42]	95.8 [96]	100.2
Adj. Tempo:	67.0 [227]		68.2

While I'm sure the tempo number isn't where Sidney would like it, the offensive efficiency number is pretty strong at well over 1.1 points per possession. A 42nd rating puts State in the 12th percentile...not too shabby.

Somewhat surprising is the strength of the defensive rating...or maybe not, if you were one of the ones who bought in early to the idea that better team chemistry would lead to increased effort and therefore improved defensive efficiency; it sure seems to be bearing out that way.

Four Factors
Effective FG%:	52.0 [61]	45.1 [50]	48.7
Turnover %:	19.6 [105]	19.5 [234]	20.8
Off. Reb. %:	33.3 [164]	34.4 [230]	33.0
FTA/FGA:	38.4 [143]	32.0 [75]	37.4

Some more good news in the Four Factors front, defensively. That 45.1 eFG% is pretty stout, meaning the Pack is getting hands in the faces of folks underneath and on the perimeter. Where State's defense sags is in forcing turnovers and in keeping teams off the offensive glass. Opponents are getting up shots on 4 out of every 5 possessions, often getting multiple looks each trip down. If the Pack can turn teams over more and get stronger on the defensive boards while maintaining that sFG%, they could become one of the best defensive teams in the country overnight.

On another positive note, State's turnover % on offense has gotten much better than from a year ago. They've improved 129 spots and 1.9% over the final numbers last season--certainly nothing to sneeze at. I think that shows, again, that this team is benefiting from improved chemistry and coaching targeted at shoring up the deficiencies of last year's team.

Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	35.8 [107]	31.0 [60]	34.1
2P%:	51.2 [61]	44.6 [68]	47.6
FT%:	68.1 [181]	66.6 [90]	68.5
Block%:	10.0 [216]	12.2 [53]	9.2
Steal%:	11.5 [292]	9.6 [182]	9.9

I think the two numbers of note here are the Block % and Steal % numbers on offense (the left column). Struggling here confirms what I find myself screaming at the TV often: Be stronger with the basketball. This team struggles protecting the ball and finishing strong at the rim. The perfect example was the end of the Clemson game when, after rallying from 21 down, State had a chance to go ahead on what could've been either a dunk or an "and-1" from Richard Howell had he gone up with authority. But by going up soft, it gave Jerai Grant the opportunity to make a game-saving block in the closing seconds.

Style Components
3PA/FGA:	31.8 [185]	27.2 [34]	32.5
A/FGM:	59.5 [57]	47.2 [37]	53.5

I like three of the four numbers here. State's nearly dead-even in the rankings in three-point shooting attempt percentage, meaning they aren't relying too heavily on either perimeter shooting nor interior offense for their points, meaning they can score in multiple ways when the situation calls for it.

The assist rankings are strong. The Pack is passing the ball around and limiting teams from doing the same.

The low percentage of threes taken by opponents could be viewed two ways, but it's more likely the negative way is closer to reality: either State is preventing teams from taking threes (eh...) or they're giving up looks underneath (more likely). It seems like teams are able to get past State's perimeter defenders rather easily, leading to attempts close to the basket. To State's credit, however, they're defending this interior shots well as shown by the aforementioned eFG% numbers.

Personnel
Bench Minutes:	33.5% [140]		31.9%
Experience:	1.38 yrs [274]		1.70
Effective Height:	+2.6 [31]		0.0
Average Height:	78.0" [24]		76.5"

A couple of interesting numbers here. One, while State has some elder players on its roster (Smith, Horner, Degand), its Experience rating of 1.38 years means that a good chunk of the production is coming from its younger players. While not a young team on paper, this squad IS relying on its underclassmen more heavily than one might think.

Also, State's Effective Height is one of the best in the country. Meaning, State plays like a taller team than it is. It's a tough concept to explain in a sentence, but Ken explains the concept here. It's interesting to note that the bulk of State's Effective Height rating is coming from the Small Forward position, where Scott Wood has made a tremendous impact.

I hope I haven't bored you to death with this post, but its purpose was to dig a bit deeper into the numbers to see the overall health of this team beyond simple box score totals. KenPom.com is a great resource you should check out frequently.

View the complete entry of "A Look Inside The KenPom.com Numbers Thus Far"

Jeremy's Keys To Victory: Maryland

Jeremy M.
YANCSSB Contributor

After the huge win against Duke, here's what needs to happen Saturday at the Comcast Center for State to keep the ball rolling:

• Turn the ball over less than 17 times. (Terps are undefeated when forcing > 24% turnover rate)
• Javier Gonzalez and Dennis Horner need to combine for more than 20 points. (What a difference their scoring made against Duke!)
• Be within three or ahead at the half. (Maryland plays a great game when they're ahead and shooting FT's)

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